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Weekly Market Forecast: 3rd September to 9th September 2018 The Indians market scaled to a new all-time high yet again in this week. It was sixth week of bullish move. The NIFTY, closed positive for the week at 11680.50 (11557.1 last week) up by 1.07%. The BANK NIFTY, also reached a new high and closed at 28061.75 (27834.7 last week), up by 0.82%. Both BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap went up and outperformed the market index. Midcap Index closed at 16881.34 (16552.74 last week) up by a whopping 1.99%. BSE Smallcap index closed at 17193.20 (16864.43 last week) up by a strong 1.95%.
The bullish trend continues for the broader market on a monthly basis. A watch on Indian macro data, especially movement of Indian rupee and crude prices; and global events is also crucial. A positive GDP data will support the market.
The US bourses continued the Bull Run. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) closed at 25964.82 (25790.35 last week) stronger by 0.68%. Both S&P 500 & NASDAQ reached life-time high. S&P 500 closed at 2901.52 (2874.69 last week) up by 0.93%. NASDAQ at 8109.54 (7945.98 last week) stronger by 2.06%.
Both the shiny metals, Gold and Silver closed in green for the week. MCX Gold Mini 05 Sep Futures closed at 30,125 (29,861 last week) stronger by 0.88%. MCX Silver Mini 31 Aug Futures closed at 37,540 (37,042 last week) up by 1.34%.
Crude oil moved further up for the second week. MCX Crude oil 20 Sep Futures closed at 4961 (4804 last week) up 3.3%.
The Indian Rupee depreciated, once again in the week and breached the 70 mark, USD/INR touched 71 mark during the week and it closed on Friday at 70.8700 compared to last week’s close of 69.7750.
Events in the week:
- Monday 03 Sep – China Caixin manufacturing PMI; US Holiday
- Tuesday 04 Sep– US Manufacturing data
- Wednesday 05 Sep – China Caixin services PMI; US Exports & Imports, Initial Jobless claims
- Thursday 06 Sep – US Non-farm Employment Change, Initial jobless claims, Non-farm productivity, Services PMI; Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude oil inventories
- Friday 07 Sep – China Trade Balance, Forex reserves; India Forex reserves; US Wage data, nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Trading Ideas: Based on technical analysis, we recommend the following trades for the week:
1. Titan: Buy @ 865.85; StopLoss 848.10; Target 901.45
Last week’s Technical Call:
1. Yes bank: Buy @ 364.15; StopLoss 358.40; Target 375.70…Target HIT
2. Hero Moto: Sell @ 3273.15; StopLoss 3298.8; Target 3220.8…Target HIT
3. Titan: Buy @ 865.85; StopLoss 848.10; Target 901.45…did not reach price level
Weekly Top Gainers/ Losers (NIFTY)
| Top Gainers | Top Losers | |||
| Name of Company | Weekly Return | Name of Company | Weekly Return | |
| UPL | 9.46% | Yes Bank | 8.20% | |
| Hindalco | 7.14% | Bajaj Finserv | 4.30% | |
| Tech Mahindra | 6.58% | Eicher Motors | 2.81% | |
| Power Grid | 5.53% | Reliance Ind. | 2.81% | |
| Tata Motors | 4.70% | GAIL | 2.22% | |
Monthly (August, 2018) Top Gainers/ Losers (NIFTY)
| Top Gainers | Top Losers | |||
| Name of Company | Weekly Return | Name of Company | Weekly Return | |
| Axis Bank | 18.64% | HPCL | 13.23% | |
| ICICI Bank | 14.75% | BPCL | 9.88% | |
| Tech Mahindra | 14.47% | IOCL | 7.79% | |
| Hindalco | 14.45% | Indus Ind | 5.76% | |
| Sun Pharma | 12.48% | Yes Bank | 5.06% | |
Credit- Dr Amiya Sahu
Bond market update
Bond yields reversed its trend this week, it moved upwards by 8 basis points (up by 1.02 %) during the week closing at 7.95%. The rise in yields is on account of rupee depreciation touching 71-mark last week amid concerns with the emerging markets considering problems in Argentina and Turkey.